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2015 SEC Eastern Division Preview

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
August 1st, 2015
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   1. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

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The Bulldogs have really benefitted from this whole power shift thing in the SEC.  With Florida on a steady decline since the departure of Urban Meyer, South Carolina’s recent struggles, and Vanderbilt’s return to the cellar, Georgia has separated itself from the pack.  Yes, they haven’t played in the SEC Championship game in three years, and those meddling Gators and Gamecocks beat them last year, but Georgia is still the cream of the crop in the East.  With only one more season to get through before the start of the Jacob Eason era, Georgia will use the same formula it did last year: a power running game and a stout defense featuring one of the nation’s best linebacker corps.  Aside from their three losses, the Bulldogs dominated opponents with only one game—Tennessee in which Justin Worley played the game of his life—within a touchdown.  Clemson, Missouri, Auburn, Georgia Tech, and Louisville were the five ranked teams that UGA played last year.  Excluding the loss to Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs defeated the other four teams by a combined score of 150-42.  With such a high ceiling, the inconsistency was astonishing.
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Thank God for Nick Chubb.  In the second year of the post-Aaron Murray era, Georgia will be breaking in another new quarterback.  Brice Ramsey, Jacob Park, and Faton Bauta are all solid options, but none have separated themselves from the pack.  The last two years, highly-rated recruits Ramsey and Park were very impressive on the scout team according to players and coaches.  However, neither Ramsey not Bauta (Park was a true freshman so he gets a pass) could unseat Hutson Mason as the starter, who waited behind Aaron Murray for his whole career.  Mason understood the offense and often was a good decision maker.  But when the defense was expecting a throw, he was only average.  In 2014, on third and long situations, Georgia ranked 45th nationally in 1st down conversions.  In Murray’s last full season as starter, 2012, the Bulldogs ranked 2nd.  Needless to say, Mason didn’t give UGA what it was accustomed to from the QB position.  Fortunately, behind a strong offensive line, Todd Gurley, when healthy, and true freshman Nick Chubb were the best running back duo in the country.  Averaging 6.04 yards per carry, Georgia had its strongest rushing attack in Richt’s tenure after breaking in three new starters on the offensive line.  And with four of them back this year, the running game should be just as strong as long as Chubb stays healthy.  The biggest loss on offense will probably be Chris Conley who was not Mr. Reliable for Mason and this offense.  If it wasn’t for Justin Thomas, Georgia would have finished 11-2 on Conley’s game-winning reception in the final seconds of last year’s game.

While the offense will almost certainly improve on its impressive 2014 campaign, the defense is a little less certain.  As mentioned, the linebackers are certainly one of the strengths of this team, particularly on the edge.  But just because they will be very good doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be a drop-off from last year.  Amarlo Herrera and Ramik Wilson were the heart of this defense for two straight years and both depart.  Jordan Jenkins is a freak athlete on the edge and moves to defensive end to fill Ray Drew’s void and to get Lorenzo Carter on the field.  Jenkins immediately upgrades Drew from a pass rushing standpoint, and with Carter and Leonard Floyd also on the field, this could be the best pass rush in the nation.  After allowing the 85th most rushing touchdowns last year, and with the losses of Herrera, Wilson, and nose tackles Mike Thornton and Toby Johnson, this rush defense is in serious question.  A lot is riding on blue chip recruit Trent Thompson to not only start, but to be a star from day one.  I don’t anticipate an All-American year from Thompson, but with Jeremy Pruitt entering his second year at defensive coordinator, I don’t expect the rushing numbers to get worse.  And finally, the secondary is unusual when you compare it to the other positional groups in that there aren’t any Army All-Americans or All-SEC returnees.  I mean there are highly-touted players like Malkom Parrish and Rashad Roundtree, but both still need to earn their spots in the starting lineup.  With the loss of star cornerback Damian Swann, this unit has a lot to prove in 2015, but will be aided by the aforementioned pass rush.

Make no mistake; this is the most talented team in the SEC East.  Tennessee is young, and on its way up, but Georgia has a much higher ceiling in 2015.  However, while no team in the East has an “easy” SEC West draw, the Bulldogs get the worse of the worse.  Alabama and Auburn are both on the schedule and I have them finishing 1-2 in the West.  The good news is that Georgia will host Alabama for the first time since the infamous “Black Out” that really turned into Nick Saban’s coming out party, so Bulldog fans have the opportunity for revenge.  And with only three starters returning on offense, the Crimson Tide may still be working out kinks in early October.  Unfortunately, the Bulldogs don’t catch a break the week after either.  I have Tennessee ranked second in the East, and Georgia will travel to Knoxville after playing Alabama.  But despite this unforgiving schedule, the Bulldogs are my lock to win the East.
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   2. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

BRETT CIANCIA
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I would hate to be in Knoxville if the Vols have a disappointing 2015 season.  Even though their best years should be in 2016 and 2017 (and beyond), the hype is no joke.  After freshmen ran everywhere just a season ago, this team will only be better in the coming years.  This year, there still figures to be an abundance of youth, but most of the starters will be sophomores and juniors—you can compete with sophomores and juniors.  So the hype is certainly real, but games must be played and nothing is given in the SEC.  Last year, the Vols offense and defense each improved by about 5 points per game.  If they can do the same thing this year, they’d be averaging 33.9 points per game on offense and 19.2 points per game on defense, which would rank 32nd and 9th, respectively.  For comparison, Florida State ranked 35th and 50th in offense and defense last year.  So yes, the potential is there, and that type of growth isn’t unrealistic.
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Joshua Dobbs enters the year as the undisputed leader of this offense, which is already better than a lot of SEC teams.  The Vols have a quarterback, check.  Dobbs burst on to the scene at the end of the year, leading the offense past South Carolina in dramatic style, passing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns.  Following up that coming out party, he completed 67.2% of his passes for four touchdowns in his next two games against Kentucky and Missouri.  Dobbs wasn’t the most consistent, nor did he put up the gaudiest stats, but his impact on the team was undeniable.  He went 4-2 as a starter and those losses were to Alabama and Missouri, two top-15 teams.  Behind him was another young playmaker.  Jalen Hurd is a guy you notice right away because of his size and uncanny cutting ability despite his 6’3” frame.  Hurd was only a true freshman last year, but was able to average 4.7 yards per carry behind a line that only averaged 3.6 yards per carry.  He is a great pass catcher and makes life easier for any QB.  And the talent doesn’t stop there.  Josh Malone, Pig Howard, and All-SEC Marquez North make up a very dynamic receiving corp.  Malone, the former 5 star recruit, didn’t have quite the season everyone expected, but showed glimpses.  Against Georgia, he caught five passes and nearly had four more.  He hit a wall at the end of the season, but that happens to the majority of freshmen.  If Malone can flip a switch and pick up his intensity, a Malone-North duo has the potential to be one of the best in the country.

I’ll be honest; Derek Barnett was one of the most impressive freshmen I’ve seen in a long time.  He is the perfect combination of size and speed off the edge even if he was a bit unpolished last year.  But you know what?  That is a good thing because there is room for improvement.  Scary.  Curt Maggitt returns for his senior year to give the Vols one of the best pass rushing duos around.  And that is not something to take for granted.  You need to be able to recruit talent to have a pass rush. You can’t get by without supreme athleticism on the edge, and it’s tough to find those types of players even if you are a recruiting power.  LSU (103rd nationally in sacks), Auburn (94), Notre Dame (70), and Miami (61) all ranked near the bottom of the FBS in sacks.  When you have guys like Barnett and Maggitt, don’t assume their replacements will be on the roster anytime soon.  This entire defense has so much natural talent so it will be fun to sit back and watch it attack this QB-weak conference.  AJ Johnson will be the only truly difficult player to replace, but there are a lot of good-looking candidates in Kenny Bynum, Jakob Johnson, and Dillon Bates.  With the secondary returning just about everyone, I certainly think this defense has a chance to improve by another five points per game, and finishing in the top 10 nationally.

This is a big year for the Volunteers.  Not because of the hype or expectations, but to find out about their coach.  He has shown steady improvement since he has gotten here and he has recruited well, but every coach has his ceiling.  The exciting thing for Tennessee fans is that we don’t know what Jones’ ceiling is.  There are no holes to his “game,” or at least none that we’ve identified thus far.  So with a young team, he has no excuse but to improve by a noticeable margin this year.  The Vols draw Arkansas and Alabama out of the West, which is neither a good nor a bad draw.  Every draw is bad from the West.  Alabama looks to be elite once again, so it is probably good that the Tennessee doesn’t waste a home game on the Tide.  It’s better served for a more winnable game, which is basically every other game on the roster.  After getting smoked by Oklahoma and Oregon in early season non-conference matchups the past two years, Tennessee will look for redemption against a solid Oklahoma team in week two.  September 12th, 2015.  That’s when we will really know if Butch Jones is for real or not.
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   3. FLORIDA GATORS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

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Well finally, the most dysfunctional offense in football has ceased to exist.  I personally enjoyed watching it because TBS’ re-runs of Seinfeld weren’t meeting my comedy needs anymore.  But for Florida fans, it was not funny.  And it’s always good to see your AD identify the guy he wants and go get him.  I know Jim McElwain coached Colorado State well, but I’m not going to pretend that I know he will make a great head coach.  I’m not privy to personal information.  I haven’t interviewed his former players.  But I do know Foley is a well-respected AD, and for him to take secret trips out to Colorado just to secure his number one choice was enough for me, especially since my initial thought was that McElwain would be a nice haul.  Typically, first-year head coaches struggle.  Then, if they are any good, take a step forward in year two, and continue their upward trajectory in years three and four.  Sometimes, you get a dysfunctional coach who attracted talent, and his successor is a good on-field coach who is able to utilize that talent, but can’t sustain the success because he can’t recruit his own guys, a la Larry Coker in Miami.  And then sometimes you get the perfect storm where there is talent on the roster, and you get a great-in-every-way coach.  Then you don’t even need to deal with the rebuilding process.  Gator fans are hoping for the latter, but might get the Coker.  Either way, this team has talent.
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Now, let’s talk about where they don’t have much talent.  The offensive line.  Martez Ivey was the top offensive line recruit in the country last year and should step right in to the starting lineup.  That might sound a little bold for any true freshman, but when you only have 13 on linemen on scholarship, you are basically guaranteed to be in the two-deep.  Yes, this unit has a lot of holes, but it has a lot of potential too.  Ivey, Travaris Dorsey, David Sharpe, Cameron Dillard, and two-time FCS All-American Mason Halter are all unproven, but have high ceilings.  The most important high-ceiling, low-floor player will be QB Will Grier.  The former top-50 recruit, Grier wasn’t good enough to start last year, but emerged in the spring and looks like the favorite to win the job this fall.  McElwain turned an average talent in Garrett Grayson into a pro so I like my chances with McElwain/Grier.  The constants on offense are the skill positions.  Kelvin Taylor averaged 4.9 yards per rush and six touchdowns as the second option behind Matt Jones last year.  He was a member of the All-SEC Freshmen team in 2012 after rushing for over 500 yards.  Now, he will have to have his best year of his career as the holes won’t be quite as wide as they were the past two years.  Demarcus Robinson is a beastly possession receiver who looked like the best receiver in the country in the first two weeks, putting up 21 receptions, 3 TDs, and 339 yards.  While his season stats didn’t end up being great, he accounted for 37.5% of the passing game and scored 7 of the 18 passing touchdowns.  He will need to be big this year.

If McElwain can fix the offense, this defense should do just fine.  Jonathan Bullard leads a fierce front seven that returns only three players, but a lot of talent.  Bullard only recorded 2.5 sacks last year, but had 12 QB hits, only five less than Dante Fowler.  True freshman CeCe Jefferson will most likely enter the starting lineup after finishing high school as one of the most decorated defensive linemen in the country.  If he can be a simulate Dante Fowler’s freshman season of 2.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss, this defensive line will be potent.  Linebacker Alex Anzalone was a five star recruit from Pennsylvania who played sparingly and battled injuries in his first two seasons.  He is big and athletic, and apparently came on in the spring—his potential is greater than Michael Taylor’s so there is room for improvement in the middle.  And of course, the best for last.  Vernon Hargreaves is arguably the best defensive back in college football.  He came in as the number one DB recruit two years ago, and will probably go out as the number one DB in the NFL draft.  Brian Poole and Jalen Tabor round either the number one or number two CB grouping in the nation (Virginia Tech).  It is a bit alarming that after Muschamp left, the Gators gave up 536 yards to East Carolina in the bowl game despite the clear talent advantage.  Greg Nord was the defensive coordinator at Mississippi State so he is certainly a proven hire, lessening my concerns.

Florida is certainly one of the most difficult teams to evaluate.  It is always difficult to gauge how well a new coach will do in his first season.  The Gators have recruited well and seem to have a lot of talent on the roster.  You can certainly see it on film.  But how much of that is raw talent that needs further development?  What percentage of Muschamp’s shortcomings was due to player development?  What percentage was due to scheme?  He certainly didn’t develop his quarterbacks, but his defense has played well.  So with a new head coach and a decent amount of talent back, I’m predicting either the “Larry Coker” or “Perfect Storm” options for Jim McElwain.  This is one of the rare times a competent head coach will be able to utilize the talent left behind a lesser on-field coach.  Whether McElwain is able to recruit well enough to sustain success, the jury is out.  But in 2015, all will be just fine.
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   4. MISSOURI TIGERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

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Missouri is coming off back-to-back SEC East championships—an accomplishment very few saw coming given that the Tigers have only been in the league for three years. However, with traditional powers Florida and Tennessee down for a few years, the door was left open for a new champion and Missouri stepped right in. Mizzou’s 2014 campaign was filled with close games—a one-point win against South Carolina, and seven-point victories against Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Arkansas. This year, I would not be surprised if the Tigers, yet again, get themselves into a bunch of close games, but I expect them to drop a few more especially with the resurgence of Tennessee and Florida. In addition, Missouri will be without their two elite pass rushers in defensive end Shane Ray and defensive tackle Markus Golden who were both huge difference makers and both largely responsible for their 10-win season. Missouri will not be completely outmatched by any team in the East, but with a tougher schedule and some key losses, I expect them to finish in the middle of the pack in 2015.
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Quarterback Maty Mauk looks to build upon his strong second half of last season. With an injured throwing shoulder bothering him in the early parts of 2014, Mauk looked a bit uncomfortable at times and he was not making the passes that he was previously able to. However, he was at full strength toward the end and his numbers certainly increased. Overall, he threw for 2, 648 yards last year and Missouri will undoubtedly reap the benefits of having a talented and experienced quarterback leading the team in 2015. The offensive line should be an improvement from last year; Missouri returns Center Evan Boehm, Tight End Sean Culkin, and Right Guard Mitch Hall. This unit will be an experienced one, and should provide Mauk with the time he needs to make plays down field. If the Tigers are going to three-peat in the East, the offensive line will have to be one of the strongest in the division, and--barring any injuries--this group is capable of that.

Defensively, the losses of Shane Ray and Markus Golden jump out immediately as those are two players who cannot easily be replaced. Ray was a 1st team All-America selection and a Hendricks Award finalist, while Golden was a 2nd team All-SEC defensive tackle. As I mentioned before, Missouri was in a lot of close games, and these two pass rushers were a big reason why the Tigers usually came out on top. The defensive line does have some talent, particularly defensive tackle Harold Brantley, but it will take a couple of years for the Tigers to field another dominant D-Line. Returning at linebacker is 2nd Team All-SEC Kentrell Brothers, who should have another excellent season. Further, Missouri returns nine out of ten defensive backs, which should make for an improved unit in the 2015 season. However, despite the experience and talent at linebacker and the defensive backs, Missouri’s points per game will not improve from last year due to the holes at defensive line.

Missouri’s success in the SEC has been a huge surprise to many given that they were not a perennial powerhouse in the Big 12, a conference with less overall talent compared to the SEC. However, Missouri has taken advantage of a down SEC East and has won the division two years in a row. While a three-peat is possible this year, it will be much harder to win the division again with the increase in competition and several key losses on the defensive side of the ball. Never count out the Tigers, but expect a fall from the past two years.

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   5. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

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Jadeveon Clowney, Kelcy Quarles, Victor Hampton, Wayne Ellington, and Connor Shaw.  Those were all some big names to replace last year, but given Steve Spurrier’s track record, everyone just assumed it would be fine.  In one of the most hyped games of the season—it’s funny thinking about how much attention some of these preseason games get when you look back in hindsight—the Gamecocks were exposed in week one against Texas A&M.  Kenny “Trill” Hill was proclaimed as the next great quarterback in college football, but really South Carolina’s defense should have been questioned for allowing Kenny Hill to throw for over 500 yards.  The Gamecocks defense has been the team’s identity over the past few years, but dropped off in 2013, and hit rock bottom last year.
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Dylan Thompson was not Connor Shaw, who was not a great “numbers” quarterback—I should say not a “big” numbers QB because his efficiency was out-of-this-world good—but was  true winner.  His running ability added another dimension to this offense, adding an extra 50 yards of offense per game.  He was also a better game manager.  And I don’t mean that negatively, which is the connotation it carries.  However, the offense wasn’t truly the problem in 2014.  Over the past five years, you really can’t find a more consistent offense, ranking 42nd, 31st, 44th, 42nd, and 38th in scoring offense nationally.  And six years ago, Spurrier was still revamping this group as they ranked 102nd.  So offense wasn’t the problem.  For the Gamecocks to get back to where they were in 2012 and 2013, the defense needs to step up and the offense needs to remain about the same.  Of course, you don’t have to win the same way every year, and the offense has always had room for improvement.  But we’ll assume they stick with the same blueprint—so how can this offense maintain its above-average, no more no less, level of potency in 2015?

In 2013, the Gamecocks allowed over 4.0 yards per carry for the first time since 2007. They allowed a decent 4.31 yards/carry, but there was still a drop off from the previous years.  However, they made up for it in the pass rush led by all-World DE Jadeveon Clowney and DT Kelcy Quarles.  Last year, the wheels fell off as this defense gave up 5.37 yards per carry and only recorded 14 sacks all year.  Those numbers are horrible.  And when you simply cannot stop the run, the rest of the script will write itself.  Any further analysis is unnecessary.  That’s all folks.  This defense went from a perennial top-10 unit to finishing 94th in total defense last year, giving up 433 yards per game.  The only thing that would have been worse than this defense last year would have been an experienced version of this defense.  Last year, the front seven was mostly composed of sophomores.  Sharrod Golightly and JT Surratt are the only two players gone from the front.  Leading tackler Skai Moore is one of the best linebackers in the SEC and led the Gamecocks with 93 tackles as a sophomore.  With added weight, he could turn into a true star in the middle of the field.  Behind Moore and fellow starter Jonathan Walton are two big-time recruits in sophomore Bryson Allen-Williams and true freshman Sherrod Pittman who enrolled early.  Clearly, there is talent in the front seven this year, and that is a huge improvement over last year.

The Gamecocks have only lost to Georgia once in the past five years.  When you have that type of advantage over the consensus number one team in your division, you already have your own advantage.  With a manageable schedule featuring LSU at home and Texas A&M on the road, this SEC West draw is better than most.  North Carolina should be much improved, and one of the most difficult teams to play in week one given how veteran its offense is.  If the Gamecocks can win over the other Carolina, they might be back already.
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   6. KENTUCKY WILDCATS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

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Mark Stoops is making progress.  Slowly, but surely, he is making progress.  His recruiting has been an improvement, especially last year’s freshman class in which he signed ten 4 star recruits according to Rivals.  That class is now sophomores, so you can expect the on-field success to continue to improve as this class grows up.
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The big X-factor this season is the quarterback play.  On one hand, neither Patrick Towles nor Drew Barker has separated himself this spring.  “If you have two quarterbacks you don’t have one.”  However, this may be a good sign that Drew Barker is living up to his recruiting hype because Towles was pretty good last year as a sophomore, completing 58% of his throws for nearly 3,000 yards.  If he wins the job, Towles will need to continue to grow.  There is a big difference between being good for a sophomore and being good.  A 58% completion percentage and a 14/9 TD:interception ratio is not going to cut it in year two as starter.  As I mentioned, he has a high ceiling, and looked great in the first half of last season.  The wide receivers lose their number two and three targets in Javess Blue and Demarco Robinson, but Dorian Baker and Blake Bone were two of the 4 stars from last year’s class.  Ryan Timmons returns after leading the team with 45 receptions for 536 yards and could emerge into a true number one target.  Fortunately, the running game should be much improved.  Four of five linemen return after leading the running game to 4.1 yards per carry average.  Top recruit Stanley Williams becomes the full time starter after a very good true freshman season in which he averaged 6.6 yards per carry!  After improving from 20.5 points per game in 2013 to 29.5 in 2014, this offense is on the uptick.  I see no reason why this unit will not enter the 30+ ppg mark for the first time since 2010.

So the offense is getting better, but why did the defense remain just as bad in 2014 as it was in 2013?  This is defensive guru Mark Stoops at the helm, right?  To be honest, I don’t know.  Their turnovers were up, their defensive line and secondary was improved, and their linebackers were solid.  Overall, I would say the numbers are a bit misleading due to the blowout losses, particularly at the end of the season that the Wildcats suffered.  Bud Dupree and Za’Darius Smith formed one of the best duos on the defensive line in the SEC, but both are gone leaving a huge void up front.  Their absences have led Mark Stoops to switch to the 3-4, which is a difficult system to consistently run at the college level because it requires a lot of reading and patience, not to mention a true Nose Tackle, which isn’t as easy to recruit as you’d think.  Fortunately, Kentucky’s has beef in the middle with Melvin Lewis and Matt Elam, both well over 300 pounds.  Josh Forrest, Ryan Flannigan, and Jason Hatcher will start at linebacker, but there is also a lot of talent in the wings.  If the defensive line can occupy blockers, allowing this deep linebacker corp to make plays in space, I expect this rush defense to improve.  And while the secondary returns a lot, the losses of Bud Dupree and Za’Darius Smith in the pass rush may cause the pass defense numbers to drop.

Overall, this program is on the rise.  But in the SEC, minor improvements aren’t going to cut it.  After signing ten 4 stars last year, only two 4 stars will arrive in Lexington this year.  Still, with better player development than other schools in the SEC East, Kentucky doesn’t need to be Alabama in the offseason.  Nobody does.  Overall, the Wildcats have a favorable schedule, which is just another reason why they can surprise this year.  There isn’t an “easy” SEC West draw, but Kentucky’s is just about as good as you can get.  In back to back weeks, Kentucky plays Auburn at home on a Thursday night then travels to Mississippi State.  Auburn will be very tough, but anything can happen on a Thursday night, especially at home.  And while Dak Prescott returns as the best SEC QB, the rest of the Mississippi State roster is probably less talented than the rest of the division.  Still, the biggest unknown that could lead to the most wins is the quarterback position.  If one of Towles or Barker buds into a star, look out.

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   7. VANDERBILT COMMODORES

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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Like I said about North Carolina’s defense and Wake Forest’s offense, things can only go up.  Keep in mind that last year Derek Mason’s name was akin to Will Muschamp, Gene Chizik, and Bud Foster.  He was truly one of the hottest assistants around.  James Franklin could not have left at a more opportune time (for his own interests) because Vanderbilt was losing a lot heading in to 2014, and while he built something pretty impressive, it was not yet built to reload.  For as bad as things were last year, I’d probably have the Commodores ahead of Kentucky if it wasn’t for the difference at quarterback.  Just like Larry Coker cannot truly be credited with his first championship in Miami, Mason cannot truly be credited with his first disaster season in Nashville.
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Like I said about North Carolina’s defense and Wake Forest’s offense, things can only go up.  Keep in mind that last year Derek Mason’s name was akin to Will Muschamp, Gene Chizik, and Bud Foster.  He was truly one of the hottest assistants around.  James Franklin could not have left at a more opportune time (for his own interests) because Vanderbilt was losing a lot heading in to 2014, and while he built something pretty impressive, it was not yet built to reload.  For as bad as things were last year, I’d probably have the Commodores ahead of Kentucky if it wasn’t for the difference at quarterback.  Just like Larry Coker cannot truly be credited with his first championship in Miami, Mason cannot truly be credited with his first disaster season in Nashville.

After a true carousel—or should I say circus—at quarterback last year, this young offense didn’t really stand a chance.  Patton Robinette struggled early in the season, leading to the circus, then eventually proved he was the best option, but still swapped in and out at times and battled injuries.  Johnny McCrary attempted the most passes and didn’t look awful, but didn’t look great either.  Stephen Rivers was not very good in his senior year while Wade Freebeck wasn’t quite as good as McCrary in his true freshman season.  Both McCrary and Freebeck look the part of NFL quarterbacks, and neither had the luxury of much surrounding talent, so there is some promise there.  Not to mention, four star QB Kyle Shurmur, the son of Eagles Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur, will add his name to the competition.  You figure that given his bloodlines, he may be a bit more polished than your average freshman off the street.  The positional groups with the most experience are the offensive and defensive lines.  The O-line in particular will benefit from the fact that 4/5 starters return (now upperclassmen) given the cohesion required for a successful offensive line.  And at the end of the day, this line wasn’t that bad last year.  Facing some of the best defensive lines in football, the Commodores rushed for 3.42 yards per carry, which isn’t great, but it isn’t Wake Forest’s 1.25, either.  And even better, the line only allowed 21 sacks, which is better than the national average of 25.  With former Wisconsin offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig taking over and the return of leading rusher Ralph Webb, this running attack may not be all that bad.  Baby steps.

I don’t truly know how I feel about the offense in the future because of Mason’s defensive background and last year’s attempt at a season, but I do believe the defense will just fine.  The Commodores weren’t too bad last year considering how bad the offense was and the extra opportunities opposing offenses had to score.  Finishing 70th in total defense and allowing a respectable 4.43 yards per carry, this defense returns 9 starters and could be a top-50 defense.  Nigel Bowden, Caleb Azubike, and Stephen Weatherly all jumped out on film from last year and return.  Azubike and Weatherly led the team in sacks last year and have good size.  On the back end, everyone returns from a unit that had almost no experience at this time last year.  Taurean Ferguson and Oren Burks were freshmen who recorded 11 pass break ups combined.  So with nine starters back, it’s a pretty easy assumption that this unit will improve.  And the best part is that most of these starters will be back in 2016.

Here is my bold prediction: Vandy will not lose an out-of-conference game this year, including a game at Houston.  Even though Patton Robinette decided to end his career, one young QB will exceed last years production of 50% completions, 13 TDs and 19 INTs.  If Mason can continue to recruit a few 4 star recruits every year, and develop players, he doesn’t need to be James Franklin.  But the unfortunate part is that he needs to do the same job Franklin did.  He needs to start from ground zero.
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