2001 College Football Playoff Simulation

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SIMULATION

2001 EDITION

BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
February 2015

After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.

This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score.

How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves?

Let the games begin - here's what should have been:

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2001 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE

You may remember the 2001 season better than other years because of how often the 2001 Miami team is still referenced. With a roster that looked eerily similar to the late 2000s Pro Bowl rosters, the Hurricanes were dominant. The Canes defeated Nebraska in the Rose Bowl 37-14, which stirred a bit of controversy as the Cornhuskers were a product of the BCS after finishing fourth in the AP and second in the BCS.

Oregon and Colorado finished second and third in the AP poll after winning the Pac-10 and Big 12, respectively. The Ducks only had one loss in a narrow defeat to unranked Stanford. However, when challenged, Oregon prevailed as they boasted a 3-0 record against top 25 opponents. Sure, three top 25 teams isn’t exactly murderers’ row, but it seemed like enough at the time. Colorado benefited from its last impression. After opening the season 11-0 with wins over then-ranked #1 Oklahoma and #17 Notre Dame and featuring eventual Heisman Trophy-winner Eric Crouch at QB, Nebraska appeared to be Miami’s Midwest equal. But it wasn’t meant to be as Colorado stomped Nebraska 62-36. With that, you had two very strong Big 12 candidates and a one-loss Oregon team. The other candidates? #5 Florida (9-2), #6 Maryland (10-1), #7 Illinois (10-1). Florida was a two-loss team that didn’t win its conference. Out. Maryland and Illinois didn’t play difficult schedules despite winning their conferences. Maryland had one overtime victory against a top 25 opponent and Illinois’ best win came in week 4 against #17 Michigan. The Buffs astounding win in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game would show the committee that they are one of the best four teams in the country.

2001 College Football Playoff

It wasn’t clear just how dominant Miami was until a few years had passed and we saw what types of stars were on that team. At the time, the demolishment of Nebraska marked the first big BCS controversy. Clearly, the wrong team had gotten in, or so it seemed. While we simulated what the Playoff would have looked like—and there is no guarantee Miami would have won—the 2001 Miami team would have most likely dominated anyone.

Miami defeated Nebraska 22 games to 3 in our 25 simulations per round. The Canes average score was 35-18, which wasn't too far off the real-life 37-14 score. In the other semifinal, Oregon manhandled Colorado 19 games to 6 with an average score of 37-24.

Hey, maybe this would have been Oregon's year and all the talk about Oregon's ineptitude to win the big one would have never been a thought. Of course, it would have been the Ducks' luck that Miami was waiting on the other side. The Hurricanes dominated as expected: with an average score of 37-25, the fighting Larry Cokers won 19 of 25 simulated games. The 2001 Miami team may have been the greatest team ever assembled at the collegiate level.