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COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SIMULATION

2002 EDITION

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BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
February 2015
After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here.  The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.

This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup.  As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4.  Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present.  We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score. 

How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves?

Let the games begin - here's what should have been:

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013


​2002 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE
Some call the 2001 Hurricanes the best college football team of all-time.  The scary part is that the 2002 edition may have been better.  The Canes again finished undefeated, despite some help from "Wide Left," and again earns the #1 seed in the College Football Playoff.  Ohio State also finished undefeated with 6 wins earned by a score or less.  A gutsy season in Jim Tressel's 2nd Buckeye campaign earns OSU the #2 seed.  Yes, Ohio State finished 8-0 in the Big Ten, but so did Iowa! In this era before the Big Ten added a conference title game, the leagues two undefeated teams never had a chance to settle it on the field.  That dream becomes reality here, as the Hawkeyes (11-1) finished with the 3rd-best resume and are slated to challenge the Buckeyes in one semifinal matchup.  The Selection Committee had a relatively easier decision this season, as SEC champion Georgia was the only other remaining 1-loss team and certainly had a playoff-level resume to back it up.  The Dawgs were given the #4 seed and a shot to knock off the Hurricanes, winners of 34 straight.
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2002 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Miami proved its dominance yet again, winning the series 18-7 with an average score of 35-26.  David Greene couldn't keep pace with Ken Dorsey's star-studded unit who outclassed David Pollack's defense.  The Hurricanes head to their 2nd straight title game.
In the other semifinal, which was also serving as the "Big Ten Championship," the Buckeyes' luck finally ran out.  Heisman Trophy runner-up Brad Banks was too much for the Silver Bullets to handle.  Like most of the 2002 Ohio State season, this one came down to the final frame, but this time the resilient bunch ended on the other side.  Iowa won the series 14-11 games with a 28-27 average score.
There would be no miracle in the Desert here, as the 2002 Iowa Hawkeyes couldn't replicate what the Buckeyes did in real life in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl.  Here in the computer simulation, Miami rolled to an 18-7 series victory with an average score of 34-27.  This is Miami's 2nd straight College Football Playoff Championship, and the 5th straight for the Speed State.


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LINKS to our other CFB Simulation Features:
Champions Tournament- 38-team bracket of champions, runner-ups, BCS Busters 1996-2012
Champions Gauntlet- 2013 Florida State vs 8 Former BCS Champions

                '13 FSU vs. '98 Tenn     '13 FSU vs. '99 FSU     '13 FSU vs. '00 OU     '13 FSU vs. '02 OSU
                '13 FSU vs. '05 Texas     '13 FSU vs. '08 UF    '13 FSU vs. '11 Bama    '13 FSU vs. '01 Miami

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